Middle East ‘Uneasy Peaces’: What Comes After the Latest Ceasefires?

Picture a desert wind that dies down for a moment, sand settling across endless dunes, only for the gusts to whip up again. That’s the feel of the Middle East right now. The Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza, which kicked off in October 2025, has limped into its second phase this January 2026. Phase one saw hostages freed and some troops pulled back, but accusations fly thick and fast. Hamas points to Israeli strikes; Israel logs Palestinian violations. No fresh deals calm the north with Hezbollah or the Red Sea with Houthis. These truces hang by a thread, fragile as a spider’s web in a storm. What breaks them next? Or could something stick?

The Gaza Ceasefire Deal: Key Steps So Far

The US-brokered plan lit the spark in October 2025. Phase one traded captives for prisoners and eased aid into Gaza. Troops shifted to a “yellow line,” leaving Israel in control of key areas. Now, phase two, announced on 14 January 2026 by envoy Steve Witkoff, pushes for bigger changes. Hamas must disarm. A technocratic group takes the wheel. An international force steps up for security. France backs the moves, and President Trump chairs a peace board to oversee it all. Promises fill the air, but actions lag. Both sides nod at parts they like, yet trust stays low. The deal maps a path from war to wary calm, but each step tests nerves.

For details on US plans for Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal, check recent reports. Netanyahu calls phase two mostly symbolic, a nod to progress without full bite.

Hostage Swaps and Troop Pullbacks That Started It All

Hamas let go of all living hostages and most remains by late 2025. Just one body stays behind. Israel released over 1,900 Palestinian prisoners in return. Troops pulled back to the yellow line, but hold 53 to 58 per cent of Gaza. Aid trucks rolled in faster, bringing food and medicine to starved streets. Families reunited amid rubble. Palestinians breathed easier for the first time in months. Yet Israel keeps watchtowers lit. These swaps bought time, a brief glow in the dark. Progress feels real, but shadows linger from old grudges.

Phase Two Kicks Off: Disarmament and New Rulers

The National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, or NCAG, steps in for interim rule. No Hamas or hardliners; experts handle aid and rebuilds. IDF withdraws further from populated zones. An International Stabilization Force, or ISF, patrols with a Trump-led Board of Peace calling shots. Hamas labels it positive, ready to hand power, but stalls on rocket caches. No countries pledge troops yet. France pushes quick NCAG setup for stability. The shift aims to neuter threats, replace fighters with builders. Still, empty promises echo if guns stay hidden.

Tensions Simmer: Violations Breaking the Truce

The ceasefire clings on, but cracks spiderweb across it. IDF counts over 78 breaches by Palestinian groups since October. Gunfire from Rafah hit a tank; snipers test troops near outposts. Israel strikes back, killing Hamas commanders in Deir al-Balah and elsewhere. Hamas tallies 450 Palestinian deaths and 1,250 injuries since the truce began. Three IDF soldiers and two Israelis lie dead from attacks. Both blame the other: Israel calls shots blatant violations; Hamas cries over civilian tolls and delays in final remains. Spies scout positions; drones buzz borders. No collapse yet, but tempers fray like old rope.

Netanyahu’s take on phase two as symbolic highlights doubts. Air strikes dip but don’t stop, per Gaza reports. Hezbollah stays quiet in Lebanon; Houthis fire sporadic shots in Yemen. Gaza’s truce strains alone, a lone boat in choppy seas.

Roadblocks to True Peace in Gaza and Beyond

Hamas digs in heels. Full disarmament? No chance. Small arms stay with fighters; new commanders rise in shadows. Trump demands total handover, but no deadlines bind the board. Risk mounts: one big clash tips to war. France eyes Palestinian Authority return, a state in sight. Yet without Hezbollah or Houthi pacts, calm feels local, not regional. Israel razes buildings even under truce, eyes on tunnels. Broader peace needs all pieces, or Gaza’s fire spreads.

Sky News analysis flags phase two as protracted. Violations chip away; trust erodes daily.

Hamas Holds Out on Weapons and Power

Hamas nods to NCAG but grips guns tight. US pressure mounts for full disarmament, yet brigades appoint fresh leaders. Rockets hide in mosques and homes. Power slips slow; they spy on IDF pulls. Fighters drill in alleys, eyes on comebacks. Refusal blocks phase two cold. New faces mean old fights linger. Control frays at edges, but core stays armed.

Missing Pieces Like Troops and Deadlines

ISF lacks boots; no nations commit forces. Timelines blur without firm dates. Trump vows force if stalled, but words alone won’t hold. France crafts NCAG for quick aid, reforms to rebuild trust. No deadlines spell drift toward deadlock. Back to bombs? Odds rise without locks.

What Lies Ahead: Scenarios After These Uneasy Peaces

Best path: Hamas meets deadlines, NCAG governs clean, ISF secures streets. Calm creeps north; talks tame Houthis. Trump brokers wins, UN nods approval. Gaza rebuilds, kids play sans booms. Worst case: violations spike, a Rafah clash ignites full war. IDF rolls back in; rockets rain. Hezbollah stirs; ships burn again. Middle ground holds shaky, phases drag. US pushes, but local fires burn hot. Watch Trump board moves. UN eyes in. Other fronts quiet for now. Hope flickers, but realism rules. What path do you see?

BBC tracks if war restarts in Gaza. Scenarios branch wide.

In Gaza’s uneasy peace, violations and stalls warn of thin ice. Phase two tests wills: Hamas arms, missing troops, no deadlines. Broader calm skips Hezbollah, Houthis. True fix demands steel commitments, not nods. Stay sharp on CurratedBrief for global shifts like these. Subscribe for daily briefs on breaking news. Peace takes deeds, not dreams alone. What breaks next?