Listen to this post: The Race for Rare Earths in Green Tech Supply Chains
Electric cars hum down motorways, their motors spinning with quiet power. Giant wind turbines turn lazily offshore, slicing through salty air to feed the grid. Solar farms gleam under the sun, panels tracking light with precision. These scenes depend on rare earth elements, obscure metals like neodymium and dysprosium. Small amounts in magnets make all this possible.
Yet a fierce contest brews over these minerals. China dominates production and refining, holding the world hostage to its choices. The US, Australia, and allies scramble to build alternatives. Tensions spiked in late 2025 with export curbs, delaying factories and hiking costs. Now, in January 2026, fresh deals and funds signal a pushback. This race shapes the path to clean energy. Nations that secure rare earths supply chains win the green future. Others face blackouts in their net zero plans.
Why Rare Earths Fuel the Green Energy Boom
Rare earths power the machines that fight climate change. These 17 metals pack unusual strength in tiny spaces. Neodymium creates magnets 10 times stronger than steel ones. Dysprosium keeps them hot-proof, vital for harsh conditions. Without them, electric vehicle motors grow bulky and weak. Wind turbines lose efficiency. Solar tech dims.
Demand surges. By 2030, the world needs three times more neodymium than today. Electric cars alone could eat half the supply. Wind power follows close. Factories idle if metals run short. Clean goals slip years behind. Picture empty charging stations and still turbine blades. That’s the risk.
| Rare Earth | Key Property | Green Tech Role |
|---|---|---|
| Neodymium | Super strength magnets | EV motors, wind generators |
| Dysprosium | Heat resistance | High-temp turbines, EV efficiency |
| Praseodymium | Magnetic boost | Lighter EV batteries, solar trackers |
| Terbium | Stability under stress | Offshore wind, defence hybrids |
This table shows their punch. Green tech leans on them hard.
Neodymium and Dysprosium in EVs and Turbines
Neodymium pairs with praseodymium for top magnets. They shrink EV motors by 30%, add range. Tesla Model 3 packs 2kg per car. Lighter weight means less battery drain. Owners drive farther on one charge.
Wind turbines use even more. A single offshore giant needs two tonnes. Dysprosium stops demagnetising in storms. UK farms like Hornsea One rely on this duo. Output jumps 20%. Recent data shows EV sales doubled neodymium use in 2025. Turbines added 15%. Supplies strain under the load.
Photo by Daniel
China’s Control Sparks Global Alarm
China mines over 60% of rare earths. It refines 90%. Factories there turn ore into magnets no one else matches. The West imports finished parts, even from its own mines. One embargo and lights go out in defence plants. Renewables halt too.
Risks hit hard. In 2025, quotas capped exports at 96,600 tonnes for 2026. Ships waited weeks for licences. Prices doubled. Carmakers like GM paused lines. Consumers paid more for batteries. China wields this as a weapon in trade rows.
| Country | Mining Share (%) | Processing Share (%) |
|---|---|---|
| China | 65 | 90 |
| Australia | 15 | 3 |
| US | 12 | 2 |
| Others | 8 | 5 |
Numbers tell the story. Reliance breeds fear. Breaking China’s grip on rare-earth elements outlines the squeeze.
Past Export Bans and Price Shocks
Flash back to late 2025. China cut oxide flows amid US tariffs. Magnet prices soared 300%. Western firms scrambled. EV launches slipped months. Wind projects in Europe stalled. One US plant shuttered for weeks. Buyers learned the pain of dependence.
Delays rippled. Batteries cost 20% more. Jobs vanished. That’s the cost of choked pipes.
US and Australia Ramp Up to Break the Hold
The US fights back at Mountain Pass. MP Materials doubles output. Apple buys $500m worth. Pentagon pumps $1.8bn into refineries. New plants open in 2026. Trump orders price floors and import tweaks. Startups snag $628m venture cash. Phoenix Tailings runs a China-free site in New Hampshire, 200 tonnes a year.
Australia triples production goals. Iluka builds rare earth hubs. Arafura eyes 4% global neodymium-praseodymium by 2032. Governments fund billions. Friend-shoring links Canada, Japan. G7 talks stockpiles.
Key projects shine:
- Mountain Pass expansion: US hits 20% global mining by 2027.
- Nolans Bore, Australia: NdPr output ramps 2028.
- Tanami, WA: New refinery processes 10,000 tonnes yearly.
Hope builds. US-Australia critical minerals framework seals the pact from October 2025.
Major New Mines and Refineries Coming Online
US proposes $2.5bn agency boost. Texas refinery nears finish. Australia’s Nolans promises steady flow. Iluka’s Eneabba hub refines local ore. Funds flow fast. Permits speed up. By 2030, West cuts China needs in half. Green factories hum again.
Progress feels real. Delays shrink with each shovel.
Tensions Rise and Future Paths Emerge
January 2026 brings Trump trade deals. Price guarantees aid miners. G7 counters coercion with shared buys. China truce restarts some magnets, but oxides lag. Greenland picks West over Beijing bids.
By 2030, chains shift. EVs grab 22% magnet use. Defence 12%. Shortages loom if builds slow. Yet wins beckon. Stable supplies speed net zero. IEA on critical minerals export controls warns of the tightrope.
Watch policies. Firms adapt or fall.
Eyes on the Prize
The stakes tower in this rare earths race. China leads, but US and Australia close gaps with mines, funds, and deals. Green tech thrives on secure chains. Factories run smooth. Turbines spin free.
Track White House orders and Aussie projects. Spot firm news for smart bets or jobs. A stable clean world waits if players team up right. Sign up for CurratedBrief newsletters. Stay ahead in the shift.
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